Script characteristics and ROI

(from boxofficequant.com - click the image to enlarge. Note that this graph suggests that if you want to maximize your ROI then you should get 3, but definitely not 5, Academy Award noms/wins. Yes I am making a joke:-)

This post is on the 2007 paper “From Story Line to Box Office: A New Approach for Green-Lighting Movie Scripts” by Jehoshua Eliashberg, Sam K. Hui, Z. John Zhang. They try to predict the ROI based solely on the script. The ROI, or return on investment, for a typical studio is given by
ROI = (0.55 × box-office revenue − production budget)/ production budget.
This is because a typical studio takes 55% of the gross box-office revenue.

The question investigated by the EHZ paper is: How does the ROI depend on the script?

The basic idea is to have a computer perform a “textual analysis” on the script (which determines how much action/sex/etc is involved, what locations are involved, etc), have human reviewers answer 22 questions about the story/plot (gleened from [B],[F1],[F2],[H]), blend them together into a sequence of “fitted values” which is essentially the script’s “score”. They are able to predict the ROI “classification” about 60% of the time.

Here are the questions:

1. Clear premise – The story has a clear premise that is important to audiences.
   
2. Familiar setting – The setting of the story is familiar to the audience.
   
3. Early exposition – Information about the characters comes very early in the story.
   
4. Coincidence avoidance – Story follows a logical, causal relationship. Coincidences are avoided.
   
5. Interconnected – Each scene description advances the plot and is closely connected to the central conflict.
   
6. Surprise – The story contains elements of surprise, but is logical within context and within its own rules.
   
7. Anticipation – Keep readers trying to anticipate what would happen next.
   
8. Flashback avoidance – The story does not contain flashback sequences.
   
9. Linear timeline – The story unfolds in chronological order.
   
10. Clear motivation – The hero of the story has a clear outer motivation (what he/she wants to achieve by the end of the movie).
    
11. Multidimensional hero – Many dimensions of the hero are explored.
    
12. Strong nemesis – There is a strong nemesis in the story.
    
13. Sympathetic hero – Hero attracts your sympathy because he/she exhibits courage and belongs to one of the followings: good/nice, funny, good at what he/she does, or has power.
    
14. Logical characters – Actions of main characters are logical considering their characteristics. They sometimes hold surprises but are believable.
    
15. Character growth – Conflict is important enough to change the hero.
    
16. Important conflict – The story has a very clear conflict, which involves high emotional stakes.
    
17. Multidimensional conflict – The central conflict is explained in many different points of view.
    
18. Conflict build-up – The hero faces a series of hurdles. Each successive hurdle is greater and more provocative than the previous ones.
    
19. Conflict lock-in – The hero is locked into the conflict very early in the movie.
    
20. Unambiguous resolution – Conflicts is unambiguously resolved through confrontation between the hero and nemesis at the end.
    
21. Logical ending – The ending is logical and believable.
    
22. Surprise ending – The ending carries surprise and is unexpected.
    

Some of these (eg, #8 and #9) are problematical but, none-the-less, this list is a good checklist for any screenwriter.

References:

• [B] I. R. Blacker, The Elements of Screenwriting, Macmillan Publishing, New York, 1998.
  
• [F1] S. Field, Screenplay: The Foundations of Screenwriting, 3rd ed., Dell Publishing, New York, 1994.
  
• [F2] S. Field, The Screenwriter’s Problem Solver, Dell Publishing, New York, 1998.
  
• [H] M. Hauge, Writing Screenplays That Sell, Harper-Collins Publishers, New York, 1991.